It’s an election year in the U.S., and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Political advertising spending in 2024 was already forecasted to leap past previous records, and the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit have injected new energy—and funds—into the race at the top of the ticket, and a new sense of urgency to all down-ballot contests.
How will candidates and their supporters spend their new media dollars from now until Election Day?
Political ads on TV: news media and beyond
News programs are a natural fit for political advertisers, and figure 1 shows that, over time, they can reach as many viewers as sports, dramas and movies—and many more than comedies, documentaries, reality or suspense/mystery shows. Considering the ratings success Fox News, MSNBC and other national news networks are having this summer, the decision to spend heavily on news seems relatively straightforward.
But there are two important caveats.
One is that there are massive audiences outside of news programs, as figure 1 clearly shows, and thus plenty of non-news ad inventory suitable for political advertising, too. People can watch the NFL or Love Island and still be receptive to political messages. That’s a good thing, especially when we consider how little news young voters are watching today: barely 15 minutes a week on linear TV for viewers under 35 (compared to 3 ½ hours for viewers over 35).
The other is that some news programs tend to attract more Democrats or left-leaning viewers than Republicans or Independents, as figure 2 illustrates. For example, during Q2 2024, we estimate that 70% of Democrats watched news shows on linear TV at one point or another, but only 63% of Republicans and 58% of Independents.
That left/right skew isn’t a disqualifying factor for news programming (or for sports and suspense programs that skew to right-leaning audiences), but it’s definitely something political advertisers should account for in their media planning.
The age profile of blue, red and undecided voters varies considerably by market
The youth vote is going to play a big role in this election cycle, but, around the U.S, the relation between age and politics is far from uniform.
When we examine the age distribution of left-leaning, right-leaning and independent (and undecided) voters in a number of swing state media markets, we can see very different curves from one market to the next. Figure 3 shows that left-leaning voters are much younger than right-leaning voters in Phoenix, a bit younger in Atlanta, and the same age in Miami and West Palm Beach. Independent and undecided voters, for their part, are clearly younger in Atlanta, Miami and West Palm Beach, but they look very similar to democratic voters in Phoenix, at least as far as age is concerned.
Most races in those battleground states are going to be won by razor-thin margins in 2024, and independent voters are likely to get the last word. Smart political advertisers will know what voter profiles they’ll need to reach in each media market to get their candidates across the finish line
Streaming should be a priority to reach undecided voters
Streaming wasn’t much of an option four years ago for political campaigns, but it’s now the dominant form of TV viewing in the U.S.—especially among younger viewers—and it could play a major role between now and November.
In figure 4, we examined what share of left-leaning, right-leaning and independent voters used audio and video streaming over a recent week and found that in most markets, Independents outpaced their democratic and republican counterparts. Independents and undecided voters don’t necessarily watch as much traditional TV, and their social media activity isn’t fundamentally different from the rest of the population, but they’re more likely to be found on streaming platforms.
Who doesn’t want to reach undecided voters?
What’s next?
The battle is on for the hearts and minds of voters around the country, but the media landscape is much more complex this year than it was even four years ago. Today, people get their news from more sources, they use more platforms and devices and their overall media habits have changed considerably, too. It’s hard enough for advertisers to figure out who and where their targets are, let alone know what to tell them and in a way that is both authentic and convincing. Campaigns have their work cut out for them.
But the right data can help. Explore our dedicated U.S Election Data Hub for more insights. Between now and Election Day, we’ll be bringing our Nielsen data sources to bear to highlight important trends and help campaigns make the most of this year’s advertising opportunities.
