On July 26, 2023, one year ahead of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony, Nielsen’s Gracenote released its first Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games. Considering available results data from key global and continental competitions since the 2021 Summer Games, Gracenote has projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad. This forecast is updated monthly between now and the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games and this latest projection was published at the end of September 2023.
With Russian and Belarussian athletes disallowed from competition in nearly all Olympic sports since February 2022, results data upon which the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table methodology relies is skewed. Therefore Russian and Belarussian athletes have been omitted from these initial analyses.
Gracenote’s VMT forecast projects the United States will win the most medals overall at Paris 2024. If Team USA meets this expectation, it would mark the team’s eighth successive placement at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is projected to finish second but on a similar medal total to the 2016 Rio Olympics. The 73 medals currently forecast for China would be 16 less than the country’s total in Tokyo two years ago though.
Host nation France should sharply increase its overall medal haul in comparison to the 33 total medals won in Tokyo. The Virtual Medal Table puts France in third place on gold medals, behind the United States, and its forecast total of 32 gold medals would be almost as many as France’s total number of medals two years ago.
Great Britain is expected to slightly improve on its performance in Tokyo with the Gracenote VMT forecasting an increase of three medals to 67. Gold medals could be significantly down though as the British team is on 19 golds.
With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in most Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for Belarus or an eventual NOC allowing Russian competitors to take part at Paris 2024. For this reason, Russian and Belarussian competitors have been dropped from the Virtual Medal Table for now.
The top-five medal winning countries
(Paris 2024 projection: 127 medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The US is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Paris. The final Gracenote projection of 127 medals is 14 more than the total claimed by Team USA in 2021. The United States team has medals in 29 different sports in the Virtual Medal Table. If achieved, the US would equal its own Olympic record of medals in the most different sports which was set in Tokyo (29). Athletics and swimming are still the key to success though with 49% of US medals projected to be won in those two sports.
(Paris 2024: 73, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China recovered from its total of 70 medals at the Rio Olympics, its lowest since 2004. With Chinese athletes generally back in full competition, it is reasonable to expect this year’s projection to be an accurate assessment so the Chinese will be dropping back from their Tokyo total of 89 medals. Diving, shooting, weightlifting and table tennis are China’s key medal-winning sports but 21 sports currently have a top-three Chinese competitor according to the VMT. Host nation France appears to be in contention with China to finish second highest on gold medals, behind the United States.
(Paris 2024: 67, Tokyo 2020: 64)
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table for Paris 2024 suggests that Great Britain can sustain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth successive Olympic Summer Games. British success over the past three Olympic Games has been built on having medal winners in at least 20 sports and the current VMT forecast suggests that this is set to continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympic Games, Great Britain won medals in at least 20 sports only in London in 1908, which was a very different Olympic era.
(Paris 2024: 59, Tokyo 2020: 33)
The current forecast projects that host nation France will almost double its medal total and triple its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics. Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 18 different sports at each Olympics this century but medals are now predicted in 25 different sports, a new record for France. At the Paris 2024 Games, France should be expected to have its best Olympic Games since 1900 and, if more than 30 gold medals are won, its highest ever gold medal total.
(Paris 2024: 55. Tokyo 2020: 58)
After its record-breaking Olympics in Tokyo, Japan is expected to come close to that performance in terms of total medals. Gracenote’s opening Virtual Medal Table has the Japanese team dropping back by just three medals in comparison to two years ago. However, the number of gold medals likely to be won by Japan should be more than halved, from 27 to 12. Medals are forecast in 20 different sports, the second highest for Japan after 21 in Tokyo 2020.
Virtual Medal Table 1-10
Countries Ranked 6 to 10 on the Virtual Medal Table
(Paris 2024 projection: 50, Tokyo 2020: 40)
Italy had its best ever Olympics in Tokyo but Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projects an even better performance at Paris 2024. Buoyed by a potential best ever performance in the pool, Italy is forecast to win a record 50 medals across 19 different sports, five more than in Tokyo. Italy may also get close to challenging its 40-year-old best gold medal total of 14, set at the Los Angeles Olympics in 1984. The VMT projects Italy to win the eighth most gold medals, behind the United States, China, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Australia and Japan.
(Paris 2024: 48 medals, Tokyo 2020: 46)
After the disappointing Olympics of 2012 and 2016, Australia will improve again on its 2021 performance in a year’s time with over 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. Achieving this will rely on the success of the swimming team. The 21 medals forecast by Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table is broadly in line with the three best Olympic performances by Australia’s swimmers – 2008 (20 medals), 2021 (20) and 2000 (18).
(Paris 2024: 36, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Two years after its best Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is forecast to produce a similar performance in Paris in a year’s time. At four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11 to 13 sports and this looks like it could increase at the 2024 Summer Games. However, success in a year’s time will primarily depend on four sports; rowing, cycling – track, cycling – road and athletics.
(Paris 2024: 35, Tokyo 2020: 37)
Germany’s medal total has declined at six of the seven Summer Olympics since reunification, with only London 2012 providing respite. Paris 2024 looks like continuing that trend with Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table projecting 35 medals, two fewer than in Tokyo. The German team is projected to win medals in 18 sports, the second lowest since reunification, after London 2012. Germany no longer dominates any particular sport and no more than four medals for the German team are forecast by the VMT in a single sport.
(Paris 2024: 24, Tokyo 2020: 24)
Current projections from the Gracenote Virtual Medal Table suggest that Canada can equal its medal-winning performance in Tokyo. This was a record for Canada in a non-boycott year. Like its neighbor the United States, Canada’s potential success is rooted in athletics and swimming which are expected to deliver 58% of the country’s medals.
Virtual Medal Table 11-20
Virtual Medal Table 21-30
About Gracenote Virtual Medal Table
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand predictions and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties.
Gracenote is the content solutions business unit of Nielsen providing entertainment metadata, content IDs and related offerings to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables advanced content navigation and discovery capabilities ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV shows, movies and sports they love while delivering powerful content analytics making complex business decisions simpler.
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